On 1 October Nigerians will celebrate 50 years of independence. The federal government says its focusing its attention on the decade that lies ahead to become one of the world’s leading economies by 2020. To achieve this feat, the country needs to unlock the potential that has been left undeveloped for decades. TradeInvestNigeria looks back at the road Nigeria has travelled over the last decade.

That the federal Republic of Nigeria’s leaders are approaching the jubilee with ambitious plans to place the country among the world’s leading nations is a tribute to the energy, perseverance and inventiveness of the Nigerian people.

That Nigeria would survive for five decades was by no means certain, despite the great excitement that greeted the nation’s birth. Some believed that the title of Chinua Achebe’s seminal novel, published just two years earlier, might prove prophetic. When Things Fall Apart come out in 1958, Nigeria as a political entity had only existed for 45 years, Britain’s three colonial administrative areas having been consolidated in 1914.

A more recent writer has referred to Nigeria at the time of new independence as being ‘diverse fragments held together in a fragile clasp’. There were (and are) several factors that militated against cohesion in Africa’s most populous nation: it has several hundred separate language and ethnic identities, various religious affiliations, considerable regional differences and clashing economies, for instance between herders and crop producers. And yet, the federation has survived.

The first attempt at a federal constitution was put forward in 1953, and the principles of federalism have gradually been added to over the years. Nigeria’s federal character has run parallel to other constitutional issues. So when a republic was first declared in 1963, a new region was created. When the military took power in 1966, t hey set out to create states. New states were created again in 1976, 1987, 1991 and 1996, with the net result being that Nigeria now has 36 states and a specially created capital city, known as the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja.

All the military rulers who held power after 1966 sought to keep a tight rein on political decision making. The introduction in 1979 of executive powers for a civilian president (as in the American system) reinforced this tendency to concentrate power at the centre. And yet, the states and their governors are also strong and have significant powers.

This paradox of political power in Nigeria is perhaps a reason for the endurance of the republic. Another binding agent was the historic compromise that ensured that each of the nation’s six geopolitical regions would be represented in the nation’s highest offices.

Early days

The first months after independence were heady days. With the boon of oil, first exported in 1958, attracting international giants like Texaco, Gulf Oil, Elf and Agip to independent Nigeria (joining earlier investors like Shell and Mobil), Africa’s newest independent nation had reason to believe that it would quickly develop into a model state. Nestle and Cadburys followed shortly after the oil giants, and Heineken and Guinness were other multinationals to show confidence in the new nation.

Unfortunately, democratic institutions had not yet taken root when conflict arose over disputed regional elections. Two coups followed each other in 1966, and allegations of vote-rigging and planned violence escalated into civil war, which lasted from 1967 to 1970. Altogether, seven military rulers would hold sway over Nigeria between 1966 and 1999. The Second Republic (with civilian ruler) lasted for the whole of President Shehu Shagari’s first term, from 1979 to 1983, but the ill-fated Third Republic in 1993 lasted only months.

The darkest period in Nigeria’s history after independence was between 1993 and June 1998, when General Sanni Abacha ruled with brutal venality. General Olusegun Obasanjo, having overseen the handover of military power to civilian rule once before, in 1979, came to the fore in 1999 and became the first president of the civilian Forth Republic.

Brighter days

The Fourth Republic has now seen three national elections. Admittedly, the quality of the elections held in 2003 and 2007 left much to be desired, but it is a measure of how far Nigeria has come down the road towards being an accountable democracy that election tribunals overturned the election of several governors.

The Nigerian judiciary and the media seem determined to ensure that democracy should be nurtured. The National Assembly is also starting to assert itself more strongly as the voice of the people. The military were naturally quite hostile to the two-chamber Assembly, but in recent years the House of Representatives (the 360-member constituency-based lower house and the Senate (representing states’ interests) have grown stronger.

The current administration has articulated an ambitious vision for Nigeria. Its stated goal is for Nigeria to become one of the world’s 20 largest economies by the year 2020.
Big strides have been made in recent years in liberalising the economy. The stellar growth of the telecommunications and banking sectors testifies to the wisdom of these moves. The stock exchange is one of the nation’s success stories and is well placed to fund ventures. These sectors in turn have the capacity to unlock value in other vital parts of the economy, such as manufacturing and agri-processing. Oil and gas continue to play vital roles, but hard work is being done to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Massive challenges continue to present themselves as Nigeria closes in on its 50th birthday. A vast amount of work needs to be done to get the country’s infrastructure up to a point where the economy can work at optimum efficiency. The problems of the Niger Delta and ethnic violence at community level require mature and far-sighted leadership at all levels: national, regional and local.

Nigerian success in any field is welcome – for its citizens, for West Africa and for Africa. As the world’s largest black democracy, Nigeria is undoubtedly a leader. As country prepares to celebrate 50 years of independence, it is well to wish Nigeria everything of the best – and success.