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Listening to news headlines won't make you money in Africa
Sun, 18 Jan 2009 19:54
Toks Abimbola

Many business opportunities in Africa are lost by over reacting to negative reports about the continent.


The people of Africa unfortunately make more news than they can consume locally, however this news is created for them by outsiders and not by them.

With such a deficit of self generated news our continent consequently suffers from a great narrative fallacy, a term coined by Nicolas Nassim Taleb in his book the Black Swan. It seems that with regard to Africa there is a tendency to construct stories around ambiguous facts. Let me be clear, Africa does have its problems and I will address some of those that relate to the investment business later. However, and more often than not, the generally held view of Africa simply substitutes inaccuracy for fact which oftentimes saves the teller of tall tales tonnes of explanation.

"O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts, and men have lost their reason!". In the play Julius Caesar, Mark Anthony calls for reason, like Anthony, and as an active investor in Africa, I call for the triumph of reason over narrative.

Let us reason that Africa is not homogenous, it is a market with 53 countries each exhibiting risk and reward in varying degree, the lesson here is to leave your cookie cutters at home. Let us reason that Africa is on the investment radar of institutional and private investors and that the ubiquitous sovereign wealth funds of Asia and the Middle East are running their slide rules over investment opportunities on the continent looking to profit from its richness in resources, vibrant and growing economies and phenomenal potential for growth. Let us reason that the key growth ingredients of stability and the valuable human capital that have eluded Africa for decades are returning to the continent to fuel the fire of an African renaissance. Let us reason that this African renaissance is creating a new breed of exciting growth businesses that are led and managed by Africans who have benefited from successful careers in developed countries and have returned to and are investing in the continent encouraged by the opportunities available in their home countries.

As an African investor for over the last half decade, Shoreline Energy International has taken a reasoned view of the opportunities in Africa. Shoreline has grown to become a leading energy and infrastructure company operating in Africa; our business has grown rapidly through acquisition, typically acquiring quality assets from European businesses exiting the continent. Our operating assets today include regional brand names in the infrastructure and energy sectors including Costain West Africa PLC (Nigeria), ABB Electrical Systems (Nigeria) and Schlumberger Testing and Production (Nigeria).The group's recent growth has been partly due to the phenomenal GDP growth Africa has been experiencing. This growth has continued to strengthen public and private balance sheets and has created double digit increases in capital expenditure for businesses and governments alike.

Causal reasoning and the fallacy of narrative is evident in the current view of Nigeria especially with regard to the Niger Delta. Perception is not reality and many investors are missing opportunities. At Shoreline we have stripped narrative from our investment decision making and are investing in the Niger Delta. Shoreline Integrated Logistics and Operations Support Company (SILOS) is a portfolio company of Shoreline Energy International. SILOS has recently acquired a 27 hectare operating base in the Trans Amadi Industrial Layout Port Harcourt Nigeria. The base will serve as the regional hub for SILOS' network of operations and logistics centers and will represent one of the most secure integrated operational bases in the Gulf of Guinea. Had we relied on the narrative we would never have made this investment, nor would our future clients which represent major international oil and gas companies.

Without question, Africa is not without significant problems for an investor. Any investment has its attendant risks that need to be managed and those risks are typically commensurate with the return. As investors in Africa we face, risks that are common to all markets but have uncommon solutions in Africa. There is oftentimes a lack of decision making information and opacity that frightens many a boardroom in European markets. However these "risks" can, and often do, represent significant advantages as they create a barrier to entry for local and international competition.

To succeed investors must not abdicate their reason to Mark Anthony's "brutish beasts", but must work through, understand and then sieve the narrative fallacy from the real risks and arrive at a reasoned view of the opportunity, which, in Shoreline's, case is itself compelling and simple to understand. Africa is growing; Africa is changing rapidly; Africa needs to refresh its infrastructure; Africa is building more factories; more residential and commercial properties; more power plants and more water plants. Businesses positioned to build this infrastructure and ancillary services will become some of the most valuable businesses in our generation.

As a modern commentator observes, those who invest based on what they read in the newspapers are very likely to end up as paperboys.

  • Toks Abimbola writes from London and is managing partner of Shoreline Capital the corporate venturing business of Shoreline Energy International, a leading infrastructure and energy investor in Sub Saharan Africa.