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IMF, CSL raise growth forecast
Fri, 23 Apr 2010 09:57
By TradeInvestNigeria Staff


Nigeria’s economy could grow by 7%, compared with 5.6% in 2009, according to the forecast by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF says sub-Sahara Africa has weathered the global crisis well, and its recovery is expected to be strong.

Oil exporters will benefit from rising crude oil prices, with growth expected to average 6.8% in 2010 and 7.1% next year.

The IMF attributes risks to growth in sub-Saharan Africa to constant changes in commodity prices, reduced donor aid and political turmoil, particularly in West Africa.

Meanwhile CSL Stock Brokers Limited says Nigeria's economy would accelerate to 7.2% this year and 7.5% in 2011.

The firm, a subsidiary of First City Monument Bank, also predicts that the Nigeria Stock Exchange All Share Index (ASI) to be up 31% at year-end 2010.

The forecast was contained in the CSL's Nigeria Strategy and Economic Report launched this week.

The report says Goodluck Jonathan as acting president has eased political uncertainties.

"In our view he will extend the reform programme to boost his political prospects. We expect consolidation of the post-amnesty gains in the Delta and the passage of an amended petroleum bill.”

"Crude oil output should therefore pick up in a price environment already favourable to producers. The formal non-oil economy is constrained by the credit squeeze, which should ease gradually during the year as banks resume lending.”

"Sectors in the unbanked economy, led by agriculture, will drive growth, while oil and infrastructure will play strong supporting roles,” says CSL



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